Pubs' October sales solid as restaurants and bars feel the squeeze on spending

Britain’s leading managed restaurant, pub and bar groups extended a run of flat trading with like-for-like sales growth of just 0.1% in October, the latest CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker reveals.

It is a third successive month of fractional increases and means growth has been above 1% for only one month of 2025 so far. The numbers reflect the ongoing hesitancy of consumers about their discretionary spending.

Pubs’ sales rise but restaurants and bars fall

The Hospitality Business Tracker—produced by CGA by NIQ in association with RSM—reveals fluctuating trends across hospitality’s different channels in October. Like-for-like sales in managed pubs were 1.9% up from October 2024, thanks to reasonable weather and a flurry of Halloween trading on the final day of the month.

By contrast, sales in managed restaurants were down by 1.4% year-on-year—the seventh negative number for the sector in the last eight months. Pubs have outperformed both restaurants and hospitality as a whole in every month of 2025 so far.

Pressure on people’s spending has also hit sales in managed bars, which slipped 5.9% year-on-year in October. This downward trend also reflects a steady shift towards earlier visits for drinking-out occasions, which has curtailed footfall in late-opening bars.

Openings drive total growth

While sector-wide sales have been broadly flat, new site openings helped managed groups to achieve solid growth on a total sales basis in October. Including at venues opened by groups in the last 12 months, sales were 3.0% ahead of last October—a figure that is only marginally below the UK’s current rate of inflation. This suggests that underlying demand for hospitality is stable, and that operators and investors remain optimistic enough to launch new restaurants, pubs and bars. There are more signs of confidence in the latest edition of the Hospitality Market Monitor, which shows Britain's number of licensed venues increased by 0.6% in the third quarter of 2025. 

London outpaces regions

For the third month in four, London provided slightly better growth for hospitality operators than the rest of the country. Like-for-like sales within the M25 were 0.5% ahead year-on-year, while they were exactly flat outside of theM25. This reflects the relative affluence and attractiveness of London's hospitality scene and popularity for tourism, and the ongoing return of office workers after long periods of working from home. 

Karl Chessell, director - hospitality operators and food, EMEA at CGA by NIQ, said: “October’s dull weather was well matched to the subdued mood of hospitality. These latest figures show hard it is for businesses to achieve real-terms growth at the moment, and with footfall well below the levels of last year they will be pinning hopes on strong festive trading to replenish reserves. The sector is now looking to the forthcoming Budget for support to stimulate consumer spending and ease its very heavy burden of costs. This support can help build a strong sector that drives long-term economic growth and job creation.”

Saxon Moseley, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK, said: “The hospitality industry continues to limp towards the budget with another set of disappointing results, with only pubs showing signs of like-for-like growth while the wider sector struggles with low consumer confidence and subdued demand. Attention now turns to the Autumn Budget, as operators look to the Treasury for meaningful support to offset last year’s damaging employment tax rises. Regardless of what’s announced, simply moving past the budget should provide a measure of clarity that has been lacking in recent months, enabling businesses and consumers to plan for the year ahead. With Christmas trade vital to the industry, the timing could not be more critical.”