Wet weather dampens pub, bar and restaurant sales in February

Dismal weather and cautious spending stunted managed hospitality groups’ growth in February, the latest NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker reveals.

The Tracker—produced by NIQ, powered by CGA intelligence, in association withRSM—indicates a 0.2% fall in like-for-like sales compared to February 2025. It extends a flat 2026 for hospitality after a0.1%drop in January.

Venues’ trading in February was held down by dull and wet weather in many parts of Britain, with Met Office figures showing England received 42% more rainfall than the long-term average for the month. Some consumers were also kept at home by concerns about their disposable incomes amid rising prices and economic uncertainty. These negatives outweighed modest boosts in February from Valentine’s Day and the Six Nations rugby tournament.

 Pubs in growth but restaurants down

The NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker shows pub groups outperformed restaurants for the 15^th successive month. They grew like-for-like sales by1.0%, which also marks a 13^thpositive month in a row for this channel—though it has risen above 4% only twice.

Restaurants found it harder to stimulate consumer spending in February, with sales dropping1.1%year-on-year. Among other channels, bars experienced another difficult month as trading falling by4.1%. Comparisons fell even further behind in the on-the-go segment, as sales slipped by5.0%.

New openings keep growth up with inflation

While like-for-like sales dipped overall, new openings helped managed groups to haul growth roughly in line with the country’s headline rate of inflation in February. On a total sales basis—including at venues launched by hospitality groups in the last 12 months—growth rose to2.9%. However, with inflation running higher over that period in key cost areas like food, drink and labour, profit growth remains difficult.

Meanwhile the Tracker’s regional breakdown of sales indicates an almost identical month in London and beyond. Like-for-like sales were down by0.1%within the M25, and by 0.3% further afield.

Karl Chessell, director - hospitality operators and food, EMEA at NIQ, said: “Flat like-for-likes and modest total growth driven by new openings have been the twin trends for hospitality for many months now. February’s figures were more of the same, and they are another reminder of how much venues rely on the weather for footfall. March brings important trading opportunities including Mother’s Day, St Patrick’s Day and the start of Easter holidays, and operators will be hoping for long-overdue sunshine to bring people out of their homes to eat and drink.”

Saxon Moseley, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK, said: “Real term growth eluded operators in February as the sector continued to struggle with poor weather and muted consumer confidence, extending a subdued start to 2026. Against this backdrop, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East present a real threat to the hospitality industry. 2022’s energy crisis tells us that consumer confidence can freefall quickly and be slow to recover. If the situation continues, we could see input costs increase across food, logistics and utilities, presenting potential headwinds of higher costs and a further slowdown in demand later this year.”